A failed Fix.
I’ll be looking specifically at the following game;
This game has very sharp and pronounced line movement. The line opens with Houston a 2 point favorite, and closes with Orlando a 1.5 point favorite.
Looking over archived injury alerts for this day there were no urgent messages or late messages that would have caused such a large line movement. Why then did this game move so much more than other Donaghy games?
I think one possible reason would be that at this point Donaghy and Battista had been working together for almost 3 months - and the books and people they were betting with started to take notice. It’s also very likely that another group not involved with Donaghy and Battista also liked this game and were betting it as well - either way the line moved a fair bit.
Another relevant detail in this game was HOU had been playing without a backup PG for some time now - this will become important as we go over some of the calls.
In poker we refer to “tells”
There is a famous scene in Rounders where Mike discovers KGBs tell;
Here is Donaghy’s tell;
HOU 22 ORL 13
I wholeheartedly believe that if you had no prior knowledge to which side Donaghy and his crew bet, or weren’t privy to any type of inside information (be it testimony - or access to some of his wagering accounts) and you wanted to know which side Donaghy bet on - merely looking at his his illegal defense call would be quite the start.